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Those April blizzards are a distant memory after spring whiplashed us into full-on summer in record time. The prairie we are restoring on our farm went from winter drab to black char to lush green in less than three weeks.

Minnesotans are beginning to understand how our water future is being impacted by a weakened and highly sinuous jet stream that sets up persistent weather patterns, letting Arctic air masses slip south and park over us. Dr. Jennifer Francis, our most recent Moos lecture series speaker spoke eloquently about this at the event and in an interview with Paul Huttner on Minnesota Public Radio’s Climate Cast.

Have you ever looked west and seen the stark boundary between forest and grasslands and wondered why it was there or whether it was a permanent feature? This example of an ecotone –  a region of transition between two biological communities – is so much a part of what we expect to see as we drive the interstates (a boreal forest up north, prairie out west, and a sliver of deciduous forest separating the two) that it’s even part of our state welcome sign.

In fact, the grassland border has shifted 140 miles east in recent decades. The 100^th Meridian bisecting the Dakotas is therefore no longer the easy rule of thumb for where dryness starts.

Climate change has moved the 100th meridian west climatic divide from its historical position (solid line) 140 miles eastward (dotted line) in recent decades. MODIFIED FROM SEAGER ET AL. EARTH INTERACTIONS, 2018 https://e360.yale.edu/digest/a-north-american-climate-boundary-has-shifted-140-miles-east-due-to-global-warming

This is not a surprise to those who have studied the long record of climate in Minnesota. This ecotone moved as far east as Grantsburg, Wisconsin (take the Pine City exit on I-35, and keep driving east until you hit Wisconsin) and back again in the last 10,000 years. The entire headwater region of the Mississippi, including much of northern Aitkin County, was a dune field; Lake Winnibigoshish essentially dried up. Closer to home, sand swept across the entire Anoka sandplain, from Sherburne National Wildlife Refuge and Sand Dunes Forest across Carlos Avery Wildlife Management area to William O’Brien State Park, as lower water tables dried up the wetlands and lakes, allowing wind to blow the sandy soil away.

In the southwestern U.S., dry years have outnumbered wet years since 1999 and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects dryness to persist through the entire summer. Multi-decadal droughts are linked to sea surface temperatures known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and have some thirsty westerners eyeing the Great Lakes.

This map is derived from data collected by the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission (SMAP), the first NASA satellite dedicated to measuring the water content of soils. The satellite uses a radiometer to measure soil moisture in the top 5 centimeters (2 inches) of the ground. The map shows soil moisture anomalies—how much the moisture content was above or below the norm—in the United States in mid-May 2018.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92274&src=eoa-iotd

This map is based on data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, a partnership of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. It depicts areas of drought in progressive shades of orange to red and is based on measurements of climate, soil, and water conditions from more than 350 federal, state, and local observers around the country. (NASA provides experimental measurements and models to this drought monitoring effort.) https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92274&src=eoa-iotd

Here at home, multi-year or decadal droughts may necessitate holistic changes to agriculture if and when drought returns, especially for those farms in the Pineland Sands, Bonanza Valley, and Little Rock Creek areas that already rely on irrigation to support crops on their sandy, drought-prone soils and lie near this eastward-moving ecotone boundary. Only about 15% of the total number of farms in Minnesota irrigate but concentrated areas of high capacity irrigation can mean groundwater is being used faster than it is being replenished. This can jeopardize the long-term use of groundwater for not only those farms and but also the  economies of communities that share that water.

Drought-prone or sandy areas and those being converted to row crops for the first time are in need of data-supported planning efforts to ensure long-term, equitable use of the shared groundwater resource. With long-term drought at our doorstep, now is the prudent time to introduce irrigation efficiencies and conservation efforts. Look for specific recommendations in our recent report.

— Carrie Jennings, research and policy director

Now that spring has finally arrived (knock on wood), is it safe to talk about what just happened and what it means for our water future in the upper Midwest?

You’ve all probably noticed we have been getting stuck in persistent weather patterns. Our cities are already thinking about how that impacts them and some are redesigning their water infrastructure to handle bigger snowstorms, melt events, and rains.

Why is this happening now in a time of global temperature rise? Dr. Jennifer Francis of the Rutgers Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences has been researching connections between rapid Arctic warming and weather patterns in mid-latitudes ever since she took a sailing trip to the north and was alarmed by what she saw.

She is our next guest in the Moos Family Speaker Series and will be presenting her work on Wednesday, May 9 at the St. Paul Student Center.

NASA satellite records show Arctic Sea ice shrinking for the past 40 years.

Map on left shows average concentration of Arctic sea ice on March 17, 2018, when it reached the annual maximum. Ice cover was the second lowest maximum on record. Chart on right shows Arctic sea ice extent in every March since 1979.

The number of ships crossing the Arctic between 2009 and 2016.

The impacts are not limited to polar bears, plankton, and far-away people. And we can’t just put a positive spin on it and say that the disappearing ice is making it possible for ships to take a short cut across the pole.

Come and hear Dr. Francis explain the connections that link a warming Arctic to the persistent weather regimes we are experiencing in the mid-latitudes. Reception is at 5:30 p.m., lecture at 7:00 p.m. Event is free (thanks to supporters Barr Engineering, the Consulate General of Canada in Minneapolis, and the Shingle Creek and West Mississippi Watershed Management Commissions) but register to save your seat. We expect a full house! (Learn more and register.)

— Carrie Jennings, research and policy director

Even after the winter’s snow has melted, our lakes and streams will not forget what we have done to move about at summer speeds during the winter months. Salt we apply to our streets, parking lots, and sidewalks is a pollutant that permanently stays in lakes, streams, and groundwater.

Remember your first taste of ocean water? In urbanized areas the first flush of meltwater in early March is two-to-three times as salty as ocean water. It’s easy to float in the ocean because salty water is more dense than fresh and sinks to the bottom. In freshwater lakes it does the same thing, where it wipes out the creatures that live near the bottom.

This is not a case of fish going belly up immediately. The sensitive species in our lakes are the invertebrates and insect larva that live near the bottom. They form the base of the food chain and when they die off, the creatures higher up on the food chain, including fish, can’t find food.

Right now, the lakes most polluted with salt are confined to the metro but as development reaches farther out, more lakes will be threatened. This isn’t a hypothetical argument — some metro lakes already do not meet the standard to be considered “freshwater”, such as Silver Lake in New Brighton. Others, such as Lake Johanna in Arden Hills and Cedar Lake in Minneapolis will follow soon. Many more are safe for now — Harriet in Minneapolis and Owasso, Snail, and Turtle in Shoreview — but without changes to our salt diet, these lakes will suffer the same fate.

Salt is toxic, but useful in small amounts for public safety. We are all part of the problem with over applying it, and all part of the solution, too. The top five things you can do now:

• In winter, drive for the season. Our collective demand for perfectly-cleared roads is a major barrier to protecting our lakes.
• Ask your city council what they are doing to minimize salt usage on public roads.
• Tell your legislators you support bills that incentivize maintenance firms to apply less salt on private properties (like HF 3577 and SF 3199).
• Hire maintenance firms that have taken salt application training for your business or homeowner association properties.
• Keep your personal use down by removing snow quickly and minimizing salt use to about one coffee mug for a typical driveway, only as necessary. Clean up any leftover salt, sand, and de-icer to save and reuse as needed.

— Brian Bohman, Freshwater policy intern and University of Minnesota PhD candidate 

Data on lake chloride concentration, chloride impairments, and risk chloride impairment are from MPCA. Additional high risk lakes were identified by identifying lakes where MPCA monitoring data suggests mean annual chloride concentration will exceed 230 mg Cl/L within 50 years.

A Brazilian colleague of mine moved her family to my town for her sabbatical year. The big questions were predictable: where to take English classes; how to get the teenagers involved in school; how could they manage without a car; how would their insurance work in our healthcare system; and what should they wear in winter. Then, the more mundane topics: where to buy fresh bread, and what’s up with the strong chemicals in our cleaning products?

She wondered why we would use those in our bathrooms and kitchens, places where we are most exposed to inhaling, ingesting, or absorbing them. In Brazil, cleaning takes place daily with water and either a squeegee or cloth that can be washed and line-dried. Floors have central drains and windows are thrown open to freshen and dry the rooms. And the rooms are clean! I have lived there for weeks on end and never thought twice about whether the housekeeping was adequate.

We walked to my co-op and looked at natural products. She found dish soap on sale that passed scrutiny. We considered the scouring powder that was simply mineral (we are geologists!) but eventually she settled on cotton towels to wipe down her floors with water.

Our cleaning and personal care products do end up going down the drain and then into our waters. What becomes of those chemicals that we really shouldn’t be inhaling or ingesting?  They become much diluted of course, but beyond that, we only realize their impact when they emerge as a problem. Chemicals of emerging concern – CECs – that’s the label for water resource specialists.

Minnesota banned triclosan — ubiquitous in antibacterial soaps, some deodorants, and even toothpaste — in 2014. University of Minnesota studies showed that it could disrupt sex and thyroid hormones, contribute to bacterial resistance, and breakdown into harmful dioxins. Our ban took effect on January 1, 2016; the federal government followed suit this month with a total ban on triclosan and 18 other antibacterial chemicals from soaps because manufacturers hadn’t shown that they were safe or more effective than plain soap and water. However, use of some triclosan products is still allowed, such as in Colgate Total toothpaste (because it is shown to be effective at preventing gingivitis). Guess I’ll be looking for a new toothpaste.

What goes down the drain never really goes away. We will eventually drink it or its reactants.  Maybe it’s time to go back to baking soda and vinegar for the tough stuff, but mostly rely on the remarkable properties of our favorite polar molecule, water.

— Carrie Jennings, research and policy director

Rescue boats fill a flooded street as flood victims are evacuated and floodwaters from Tropical Storm Harvey rise, Aug. 28, 2017, in Houston. Photo: David J. Phillip, AP

It’s been almost two weeks since Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas, and a week since the rains stopped. All told, more than 50 inches of rain fell in Houston over the course of the storm. 50 inches! That’s nearly double our average annual rainfall. No, we’re not expecting a hurricane any time soon — or ever — in Minnesota, but that doesn’t mean there are no lessons for us.

Connections to climate change followed damage reports, as well as criticism of city officials for not being prepared, planners for not planning better, and emergency managers for not conducting an orderly and timely evacuation.

I’ve talked with lots of people about the hurricane, and at some point everyone says something like, “This is why I live in Minnesota — to not have to deal with storms like these.” Me too! I also don’t want to live where spiders are bigger than my head, alligators and snakes break into my house, or scorpions sneak into my shoes.

While we don’t have to deal with hurricanes, we do have weather-related risks that are intensified by climate change. Are Minnesotans are prepared for:

Extreme precipitation and flooding

• In the past 45 years, Minnesota has experienced nine mega-rain events, compared to four in the 110 years between 1860 and 1970
• The size of the average 100-year, 24-hour rain event in the metro is rising. It was 7.4 inches between 1980 and 2010, and six inches from 1940 to 1970
• Infrastructure designed for historic normals is at risk, along with public safety and our waterways

More intense heat in summers

• The Twin Cities region has around 12 days where temperatures exceed 90 degrees and maybe one day that tops 100. This number is projected to increase to a staggering 60-70 days over 90 degrees by 2060, with 25-30 of those days exceeding 100 degrees
• Overnight lows and dew points are expected to warm, increasing the overall “feels like” temperature and making it harder to cool off overnight
• Urban heat islands will be exacerbated. A study from the University of Minnesota found that the Twin Cities can be as much as nine degrees hotter than surrounding communities due to the heat absorbed and radiated back by roads, buildings, and parking lots. This harms vulnerable populations and affects the lifespan of infrastructure

Warmer winters

• Our winters are warming at the fastest rate in the nation — 11 degrees per century since 1960 — and winter rainfall frequency has increased roughly four-fold since the 1970s
• More freeze-thaw cycles cause more potholes and vehicle wear and tear, and encourage use of deicing chemicals to keep roads, sidewalks, and parking lots safer. This further breaks down infrastructure and pollutes surface waters

At Freshwater Society, we’ve been working with metro cities to review anticipated risks and community vulnerabilities and strengths for dealing with climate impacts. Communities are preparing, but there is still a lot of work to do.

Comprehensive plan updates provide the opportunity to build climate resilience into documents that guide development. Will we heed the warning of Hurricane Harvey and take advantage of this opportunity to plan for a different kind of future?

— Jen Kader, Program Manager